Goldman Sachs predicted Obama victory


In the final days of the presidential campaign, both sides waxed extremely confident about their changes on election night.

Blogger Nate Silver emerged as a controversial figure for his widely watched poll analysis. Both parties purported to have their own top-notch number crunchers on staff, and their respective big-data-like analyses showed their candidates on the verge of a big victory. Obviously, both couldn't be right.

As it turned out, Goldman Sachs turned some of its analysts loose on the issue.

"Goldman research, citing pre-election polling data, says results imply President Obama will win 303 electoral college votes and Gov. Romney 235," notes Deal Journal.

The analysts also noted some "good news news for investors," which was that " stock markets tend to react more positively after competitive elections." 

Goldman analysts added that,  "By the end of the week following the election (i.e., November 16 this year) the median gain in the S&P 500 has been 1.9%, compared with 0.3% following less competitive races. The reaction in Treasuries is inconsistent; the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen following competitive elections and declined slightly following less competitive contests, but is characterized by large moves in either direction in a few election years, and very small moves in most others."

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