Core systems are not easy to change. They're expensive and fraught with uncertainty, and frankly it doesn't happen as much as it used to. Bank Systems & Technology notes the heyday of core change was back in 1985 and 1986, when 1,200 institutions changed the core systems. That compares with 371 institutions in 2008.

I am sure the total in 2009 will be much less. But there's still a lot of business out there for the eight major vendors and 20 smaller vendors that are active. Fiserv certainly hopes to make a splash with its new system for credit unions; 108 credit unions switched last year, and that seems to be the only category poised to go higher this year. 

But the credit crunch is waning a bit. The industry seems to be on the mend, and I believe there is some pent up demand out there that bodes well for 2010 and beyond.  Lot of banks put their upgrade plans on hold. You can bet the big vendors, led by the likes of Oracle, and Temenos and IBM, are attuned to this.

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