No doubt you've heard the predictions about middling IT spending in the financial services industry for the next few years. The latest estimate comes from Celent, which predicts that global spending will decline 1.3 percent next year. This compares with 4.5 percent growth in 2008 and 6.4 percent growth in 2007.

The 2009 downturn might seem fairly manageable on a global basis. Is 1.3 percent really all that much? But the rubber will meet the road when it comes to new projects. You might be surprised by the fact, documented by Celent, that out of the total IT investment in 2008, 72 percent went to maintenance. That's down from about 73.7 percent in 2006. Given the need to spend so heavily on maintenance, you have to be very pessimistic about new projects.

This is especially true in the securities industry, perhaps the hardest hit sector in the financial services industry. IT spending allocated to new investments will decrease by 40 percent in 2009, while maintenance spending will decline by just 4.6 percent.

What does this mean? Over the past few years, new project initiatives were focused on algorithmic trading and data issues. This year, even in those mission critical areas, we'll likely see some big-time rationalization. Same goes for maintenance spending; we may be in for more consolidation of redundant applications and the like.

The bottom line is that if you really want to spend for a project, you might be better off if you find a way to pitch as part of a maintenance project. - Jim